Despite often being dismissed as superficial, beauty trends have proven to be one of our most reliable cultural barometers. While political analysts pore over polling data and economists track market indicators (largely predicting the latest election result incorrectly), subtle shifts in beauty trends have been forecasting a significant cultural pivot towards more conservative values. From cosmetic surgery trends to aesthetic procedures and makeup styles, the beauty trends of the past few years predicted Trump’s win even when pollsters couldn’t.
Fashion influencer Elysia Berman recently went viral for suggesting that current conservative shifts in beauty standards may reflect broader societal changes, including Trump’s election win. This transformation is evident across multiple trends coming from America’s "Beauty Belt": "Utah curls" and “Latte hair” (a balayage of brondes) gained popularity while vibrant hair colors, notably blue, became synonymous with radical liberals. Winged eyeliner, once associated with alternative culture, is now deemed "cheugy" by Gen-Z and the beauty equivalent of wearing skinny jeans, according to Allure. It has been replaced by softer brown liner styles smudged subtly across the lash line.
Beauty has always been intricately tied to class, wealth, and privilege, while phenomena like the "lipstick index," coined by Leonard Lauder, have demonstrated how cosmetic purchases act as direct economic indicators. Conservative, middle-class beauty often prioritizes invisible labor, emphasizing subtlety and restraint as markers of privilege and stability, and reflecting religious modesty, traditional family values, and an idealization of family wealth. This "quiet beauty" aesthetic signals wealth and access to resources, such as expensive skincare or understated grooming, that allow for a polished yet effortless appearance. By minimizing the visibility of effort, this aesthetic aligns with cultural expectations of refinement and decorum.
The viral "clean girl" aesthetic, which evolved into the "quiet luxury" trend and "skinimalism," exemplifies this shift perfectly. With its emphasis on minimal makeup, expensive skincare routines, slicked-back hair, and "effortless" beauty, this look codes for a specific type of privilege—one that suggests wealth without ostentation, beauty without visible effort, despite often requiring significant prior investment. The debut and subsequent success of products like Clinique's Pink Honey Almost Lipstick reflects this aesthetic, while trends like liquid blush (think Rare Beauty’s viral Soft Pinch Liquid Blush) and soft lash looks, from bare lashes to brown or burgundy mascaras from Maybelline and Benefit, are gaining popularity, offering a subtler, more natural look—a stark contrast to the bold experimentation of previous years.
Similarly, Fox News has long been noted for its emphasis on the blonde, traditionally attractive aesthetic among its female anchors—a choice that many commentators suggest reinforces conservative ideals of traditional femininity and aspirational beauty, making blonde the unofficial hair color of the right. In 2024, TikTok trends showed the emergence of "old money blonde", while the TikTok hashtag #blondeinspiration has accumulated over 3.6 million views.
The rise of the coquette aesthetic—predicted by Pinterest to continue dominating 2025 in the form of trends such as Dolled Up and Rococo Revival—also champions a return to ultrafeminine presentation, complete with bows, pearls, and Olaplex ballet buns. While seemingly innocent, this trend represents a noteworthy pivot from the gender-fluid, boundary-pushing beauty movements of recent years.
The transition extends beyond aesthetics to broader cultural movements. The bold, body-positive messaging of the late 2010s has been gradually replaced by a quieter, more conformist beauty narrative. The rise of Ozempic culture and the return of "Tumblr-era" thinness ideals signals more than just a cyclical fashion trend—it represents a reversion to conventional beauty standards that historically aligned with conservative social values. Even body modification trends reflect this turn. The once-celebrated Brazilian Butt Lift (BBL) aesthetic has evolved into what industry insiders call the "country-club BBL," emphasizing subtle enhancement and "natural" results with a moniker synonymous with a certain middle class luxury.
While Trump’s win of both the election and the popular vote surprised many, the real question, given beauty’s recent trajectory, is how did we miss it? And even more potently, were we complicit?
This past year saw the trend cycle accelerating at an unprecedented rate, with microtrends on TikTok and Instagram surfacing and dissolving faster than brands could thoughtfully respond. In the rush to stay relevant, many brands prioritized virality over values, chasing engagement metrics at the expense of authenticity. As Goodhart's law suggests, when we make virality our target, it stops being a meaningful measure of success and instead becomes a game of algorithmic manipulation, often at the cost of our mission and consumer understanding.
This rapid pace was combined with a media landscape dominated by coastal narratives from cities like New York and Los Angeles, leaving middle America overlooked by analysts. The beauty industry's emphasis on hyperprogressive, boundary-pushing aesthetics ignored the growing appeal of traditional values championed across huge swathes of the country. Trends like “Utah curls” or the viral rise of Mormon housewife influencers, like Ballerina Farm or Nara Smith, reveal a yearning for a return to simplicity, modesty, and family-centric ideals. These are the same cultural forces that signaled a larger political shift—one many coastal analysts failed to predict. The beauty industry has long-neglected middle America, overlooking both the purchasing power and cultural influence of these communities. These dynamics not only underscore how beauty serves as a cultural barometer but also reveal why traditional beauty narratives surged back into the mainstream.
The shift isn't confined to products or aesthetics; it's also evident in the rise of brands aligning with conservative or faith-based values. A'del Natural Cosmetics, a family-owned brand proudly "Made in the USA," and Elevate Beauty, founded by influencer Amanda Ensing who faced controversy over her pro-Trump stance, cater to audiences seeking products that align with their conservative beliefs, offering options that prioritize Christianity, tradition, and natural ingredients. On the A’del Natural Cosmetics Blog, a section for devotionals and bible verse sits alongside health and beauty tips. Their success underscores the growing demand for beauty that resonates with conservative ideologies.
The question now is whether these trends will sustain their influence throughout Trump’s presidency or encounter significant backlash. Is this the moment we realize the power of beauty to cultivate community, expression and resistance? The normalization of trends rooted in traditional beauty ideals, like a celebration of thinness or “quiet luxury,” suggests these styles may persist. Their alignment with long-standing societal hierarchies and beauty standards we’d only just begun disarming, gives them staying power.
However, resistance is always inevitable. Just as every movement spawns a countermovement, the pendulum could swing back to more experimental, boundary-pushing aesthetics. This is already visible in art movements, particularly the return of "New Romantics" led by musicians like Chappell Roan and Caroline Kingsbury. While their aesthetic may primarily represent coastal sensibilities, their growing mainstream appeal offers hope for those seeking alternatives across the country. Navigating this tension requires deliberate action from brands. They must resist the temptation to let algorithms and engagement numbers dictate their strategies. Instead, they need to champion inclusivity, representation of all body types, and authentic self-expression.
According to a 2022 Harris Poll, 82% of US shoppers want a consumer brand's values to align with their own, and three-quarters reported parting ways with a brand over value conflicts. Evidently, there’s still a huge market for brands that stay values driven, and commit to a long-term vision and mission over short-term social media success. While polarization presents challenges, it also offers opportunities to build lasting connections with aligned customers.
For beauty brands, this landscape requires thoughtful navigation across multiple dimensions; they must understand that beauty trends reflect deeper societal shifts rather than superficial changes, while balancing authenticity with aspiration and individual empowerment with community responsibility. Success requires conscious engagement with viral trends without compromising core values, all while recognizing the economic implications of beauty trends and their relationship to broader market forces.
The industry's ability to forecast shifts suggests its power as a serious cultural force deserving of deeper analysis. Brands must move beyond surface-level trend analysis to understand the deeper significance of aesthetic shifts, acknowledging beauty's role not just as a reflection of culture but as an active participant in shaping it. It’s not too late to make a change. As the new year approaches, revisit your brand bible with intention, set goals that feel meaningful, and move forward with campaigns that represent the world you wish to see.
